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If We Took Michael Moore’s Advice

09-Mar-11

Michael Moore says the US is not broke: all “we the people” need to do is take the money back from the fat cat billionaires.

What if we took this advice? Let’s imagine expropriating some of the wealth of the richest man in America, William Gates III. Forbes says he’s worth about $54 billion, of which $16 billion is his Microsoft stock. Let’s start by taking that.

OK, so now we’ve seized about 7% of Microsoft’s stock. That’s the largest single block of stock, which should give us some privileges like picking a board member or two. Unfortunately we don’t have actual control of the company because, well, the other 93% could easily outvote us. So we have to sell the stock in order to get cash.

MSFT is trading at $25.91 right now. If we dump shares on the market the price will drop somewhat – say ten percent. So we’ll clear about $14.5 billion dollars during our sellout, driving the MSFT share price to $23.32. (Incidentally, this will reduce the wealth of everyone else who holds MSFT stock by a total of about $22 billion.)

OK! Now we’ve got $14.5 billion in cash for “we the people”. That’s, uh, $50 per person. OK, here you go. Fifty bucks. That really helped a lot.

What were the secondary effects? Well, I’d guess for starters that any publicly-traded company which has substantial ownership by a billionaire will suffer a hit in stock prices: that would be Berkshire Hathaway, Oracle, Microsoft again (Paul Allen), Wal-Mart, Koch Industries (privately held), Bloomberg (privately held), Google, Facebook (limited trading), Apple… After all, if the government (we the people!) demonstrates a willingness to take Bill Gates’s stock and sell it, why would these others be safe?

Ding! What’s that I hear? It’s another delicious running-dog treat from my friends at Koch Industries. Gotta go, I’m already salivating!

Lent 2011

09-Mar-11

Let’s get Lenten! Woo! I’m pumped for self-denial! Yahoo!

New Kinds of Taxes

04-Mar-11

Kling: “One point about the Great Substitution of leisure for work is that leisure escapes taxation. That raises all sorts of issues.

Non-consumption tax. Video game tax. Sitting around tax. Doing nothing tax. Mental activity tax.

Oh wait, that last one is basically thoughtcrime. What, did the US suddenly get Canada envy?

New (to me) Language Typology Distinction

04-Mar-11

I hadn’t encountered this before: Place-Manner-Time vs. Time-Manner-Place languages, an attribute of the ordering of adpositional phrases. Examples from Wikipedia:

English (PMT): I’m traveling to Munich by car today.

German (TMP): Ich fahre heute mit dem Auto nach München.

Japanese, which I’m trying to learn, is a TMP language like German. French and Finnish, which I’ve learned post-childhood are both PMT; and my two childhood languages Czech and English are also both PMT. (At least I think Czech is PMT; I hardly have any anymore).

No Woman No Cry: You’re Parsing it Wrong

04-Mar-11

I didn’t realize I’ve been parsing it wrong all this time.

I thought it was like “No pain, no gain”.

Like “No justice, no peace”.

Like “No bishop, no king”.

Like “No latinos, no tacos“.

But apparently “No woman no cry” actually means “No my dear don’t cry.”

In Case You Needed A New Time-Waster

04-Mar-11

At wals.info, compare linguistic features by geography (e.g.,: when do ordinal numbers become productive? first second three+th vs. first, two+th, three+th).

New goal: Post here instead of Facebook

03-Mar-11

I’ve been posting to Facebook more than I’d like to; so I’m going to try to turn that into more short blog posts with less editing/polish.

Cinematic Dream

03-Mar-11

Dream logs are fundamentally uninteresting to anybody but the dreamer.
More…

Ask Boxer

06-Oct-10

Eric Scheie asks Boxer the horse, “What’s the glue that holds society together?“:

Is work personal and individualistic, or is it social and based on what’s good for the community as a whole?

And most important, what is work? […]

After all, we don’t want to end up being like Boxer the horse. Say what you will about him, but Boxer (the hard-working horse in Animal Farm) certainly was imbued with the work ethic. And after he had spent his life toiling and sweating to build the great workers paradise out of the sheer goodness and altruism in his strong heart, he inevitably found himself getting older as we all must, his physical health declined, and he suffered a workplace injury. Naturally, he had expected to get decent health care and then have a happy retirement at pasture, but the porcine ruling class death panels had something else in mind.

I would argue that you’re doing work when you’re producing value greater than what you’re consuming; otherwise, you’re doing leisure.

It’s almost but not quite a tautological definition, but it can lead to useful insights.

Writing articles and posting them online for others to read => work, to the extent that it’s valuable to your readers; but uncompensated.

Sitting in your armchair reading => leisure, probably, since it’s valuable only to you.

Sitting in your armchair reading and thinking about your next article/blog post => close to the line between work and leisure

In Eric’s example, rewiring houses => valuable work, even if you’re not paid for it.

The hard part, of course, is to figure out what the value is, price it, and monetize it.  As Arnold Kling points out, most employees these days are engaged in building organizational capital, not in direct production.  The marginal product of a fruit picker can be measured in fruit per hour; but What is the marginal product of a marketing executive who is developing a strategy for the firm to use social media?

One of the things I really like about being self-employed is that my marginal productivity is “closer to market” than it would be if I were on a salary. On the flip side, one of the things I give up is the possibility of more income if I had a job where my work aims and pay rate were vaguer.

The Real World

01-Oct-10

Peter Boothe asks twitter

Why do we hold Internet security systems to a high standard that no offline system has ever met?

But it’s not so much that the standard is higher as that it’s different.  Counterfeiting and theft are risks for physical currency that don’t even make sense for some forms of electronic payments.  To counterfeit a credit card, you’d have to suborn a payment-processing system.  A physical credit card can be stolen but the underlying account is what’s actually of value; the account holder generally indemnified against fraud.

Contrariwise nobody has to defend against distributed physical attack – 100,000 home invasions aimed at stealing credit card information – because it’s only practical to mount such an attack  electronically.

The real problem, I’d say, is that our cultural and social systems adapt more slowly than technology changes.  For a simple example, consider that while personal accounts are insured against unauthorized debits, business accounts are not.  Since individual small businesses are on the hook for losses due to stolen credentials, enforcement efforts are weaker — effectively, banks and their insurers have chased the crooks out of consumer accounts and into business accounts.

Furthermore the cost of running electronic attacks is often very low, so the threat model for online security has to take account of even very low-payoff attacks.  This includes the classic salami attack and statistical attacks on credit card numbers.

 One reason Starbucks doesn’t use two-phase commit is that the cost of screwing up a coffee order is on the order of pennies.  A Starbuck’s that’s open for 14 hours making two drinks a minute only makes 1680 drinks.  Even with a 100% loss rate, at 10c a drink that’s only $168.  If the cost of screwing up a financial transaction is $0.0001, but the transaction can be attempted hundreds of thousands of times per minute, that’s already unacceptable.